Yes you read that right. The plural of supernova is supernovae. I am obsessive about grammar. By the way, the plural of index is indices, not indexes. Anyway, supernovae are stocks that are up an insane amount, over 100% in a couple days; Tim Sykes originated the term. The supernova du jour is GGC, which I am now looking to short aggressively on the right price action (what do I mean by the right price action? Buy Sykes’ excellent DVD
I am a happy user of Stockfetcher.com. Here is the code I use to scan for supernovae.
show stocks where close gained more than 99 percent over the last 5 days
and price is between .25 and 15
average day range is above 8
and volume is greater than 500000set{ DayChg1 , close – close 5 days ago }
set{ DayChg2 , DayChg1 / close 5 days ago }
Set{ 5DayPctGain, DayChg2 * 100}
add column 5DayPctGain
and sort column 5 descending
Set{5DaysAgoPrice, close 5 days ago}
and add column 5DaysAgoPrice
Looking for my watchlist? This is it. GGC is the stock I’ll be watching tomorrow. WUHN is also almost a supernova but I couldn’t find shares to short. AIG may be interesting, along with other finance plays, but I don’t like trading finance stocks. CMLS also on watch, more likely a good buy tomorrow than a short. I probably won’t play it.
Disclosure: No positions. I am a customer of Stockfetcher.com, subscribing to their cheapest package. I have no other relationship with them. I have a disclosure policy.
#1 by Shawn on August 5, 2009 - 9:41 pm
What makes CMLS such a good bye? I’m just starting out and landed on your blog from Tim’s site haha
#2 by Ross on August 5, 2009 - 10:43 pm
Howdy sir. You said that you don’t like trading finance stocks. Is there any particular reason(s) why? I’m a beginner at this game so I’d be interested to read what you have to say about them. Thanks.
#3 by Yngvai on August 5, 2009 - 11:49 pm
Cool…I’ve got a similar filter that I use to find these types of short setups…..I like to look for stocks 80%+ off the 5-day low, and 15%+ above the upper bollinger band. Here’s my filter:
set{fivedaylow, Low 5 day low}
set{a1, Close / fivedaylow }
set{a2, a1*100}
set{percentincrease, a2 – 100}
add column percentincrease
set{b1, upper bollinger band(20,2)}
set{b2, close / b1}
set{b3, b2 * 100}
set{percaboveubb, b3 – 100}
percaboveubb greater than 14
and volume above 100000
and close above 0.5
and percentincrease above 79
add column percaboveubb
sort by column 5 descending
#4 by Reaper on August 6, 2009 - 9:06 am
Yngvai – thanks! Of course there is no one ‘right’ scan; I have other scans I use to find potential shorts that aren’t true supernovae.
Ross – As Tim Sykes likes to say, he makes money by trading stocks up on hype and manipulation. Finance stocks have plenty of smart traders (hedge funds) trading them. I like to trade against dumb individuals, not smart pro traders.
Shawn – I don’t think CMLS is a good buy. But one big up day on huge volume is often followed by another. So odds favor that it goes up today.
#5 by Preston on August 6, 2009 - 10:08 am
I have a funny feeling you killed GGC this morning.
By the way your back to # 1 on the Fool, I know you don’t pay much attention to that anymore but I thought to let you know.
My TYP has paid off but I’m still holding because I think more downside is to come, but I will not hold overnight.
AIG has flew up.
#6 by Reaper on August 6, 2009 - 12:27 pm
Nope, blew it on GGC. It was so beautiful too. If I had nailed it that would’ve been about $10,000 in profits.
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