MDCE, ALTO, MHYS – Just reminders that pump quickly turns to dump and that buying these things is uber-risky. Too bad ALTO didn’t go up another day and I couldn’t find shares to short.
DEAR – Hmm, low-float beaten-down bank trading (even after its big run today on earnings news) at under 1/3 of net tangible asset value? This could keep moving. If I were a swing-trader I might buy some and hold for a week or two. Good thing I’m not!
CTZN – Buy buy buy (if it hits $0.70 with volume). I probably won’t play it due to lower volume.
TONE – Long on red/green or jump off consolidation.
HAFC – Way overdone move on rumors of another bank looking to buy a stake. I am short-biased but will play it small if I do short.
ACLS - just off of 52 week highs.
Disclosure: No positions in any stock mentioned. This blog has a terms of use and you can find all my disclaimers and disclosures there as well; my full terms of use is incorporated by reference into this post.








#1 by Tastylunch on January 21, 2010 - 3:33 am
I’ve spent the last several hours reading filings on DEAR. I like it as a trade, it may have some more legs in it. I’ll probably play it tomorrow if I think the price action is still favorable
Their NPA’s are wretched (12.80%), but the rate of growth in their NPAs has slowed considerably. I do like they cleaned out their intangibles and goodwill.
I absolutely hate their Regional exposure (basically just Detroit alone), but I suppose that’s a big reason why it got so cheap in the first place
I don’t think I’d want to hold into another quarter for sure though, their real estate portfolio looks to be very bad and they barely just barely meet adequately capitalized status.
A rough eyeball of their numbers gives me a Texas Ratio north of 200%, pretty bad.
(127.5 NPA/(51 StockEquity+25 LoanLossReserves-23.4 Other Real estate)
Oof
#2 by multibagger on January 21, 2010 - 8:54 am
Yeah Tasty,
I was honestly surprised when this one popped. Stealing Jim Mora’s famous line: “Dearborn?? Don’t talk to me about Dearborn! You kidding me? Dearborn?!?” Nevertheless, I’m sorry I missed that trade yesterday.
The only positive I can see is that net income turned green this quarter and, as you say, NPAs have stabilized. Otherwise Cigar butt all the way.
#3 by Tastylunch on January 21, 2010 - 9:30 am
ooof weak open
#4 by Alex on January 21, 2010 - 9:58 am
Ouch, PNGM…..No gap up, no strength….Wonder what happened here. Did the promoters loose there edge
#5 by Reaper on January 21, 2010 - 10:05 am
Or they are just manipulating the stock to screw people who try to front-run the pumps. Who knows. There’s a reason why I say trying to buy pumps is risky!
#6 by Tastylunch on January 21, 2010 - 10:45 am
well that and any reasonable fundamental value of a pump is usually well below current price.
Gravity in essence is against longs.
#7 by Reaper on January 21, 2010 - 10:55 am
Exactly.