
Trading Profits
Following are my profits from different trading strategies. I have made an effort to ensure that these numbers are correct but I do not guarantee their veracity. These returns are not audited. These numbers were last updated 1/01/2010. Please note that the returns for 2008 include no trades prior to 5/13/09, when I started keeping detailed records. The title of each trade type is linked to categories of posts I have made on such trades.
2009 (Weighted Average Profit: 1.23%)
- TimAlerts: $26,777.57
- Weighted Average Profit: 1.74%
- My Trades: $26,689.68
- Weighted Average Profit: 0.91%
2008 (Weighted Average Profit: 2.87%)
- TimAlerts: $17,233.49
- Average Profit*: 0.19%
- My Trades: $30,991.11
- Average Profit*: 3.48%
It even surprised me how much more money I make on my own compared to how much I make following TimAlerts. Most of my Sykes-type trading profits in 2009 came from one great trade on ALAN. My Sykes-type trades in 2008 include about $10k in profits from SIL, which was also a TimAlert, but I played it differently (and better) than did Tim.
*Average profit does not take into account different position sizes for different trades. For all but the above sub-categories I use weighted average profit, which takes total profit and divides by total position size.
Watchlist Longs (a subset of Tim Sykes-Type Trades*)
- 2009: $1,796.66
- Weighted Average Profit: 0.58%
- 2008: not used
All these trades involve me buying stocks on significant breakouts or huge spikes (supernovae-type stocks). They are all my own trades and I have previewed them on my watchlist on this blog usually as potential longs but occasionally as potential shorts. I use about $5,000 per trade.
*I count these trades in my total TimProfit figure but they are not counted in the main Sykes-type trades category above.
My Super-Secret Trading Strategy
- 2009: ($577.79)
- Weighted Average Profit: (0.01%)
- 2008: $80,691.26
- Weighted Average Profit: 5.76%
I will not detail these trades on this blog or explain anything about this strategy for the time being. Prior to when I started keeping detailed records on 5/13/2008 I had additional profits from this strategy that are not reflected in the above numbers.
Investors Underground Type Trades (of which Green/Red Pivot Plays are a Subset)
- 2009: $5,582.26
- Weighted Average Profit: 1.09%
- 2008: $4,274.93
- Weighted Average Profit: 0.78%
Investors Underground is a pay stock chat to which I subscribe (in 2008 it was known as Green on the Screen and was free). Proifts on pump longs, pre-leader longs, and fat-fingered shorts are not included in the above figures, even though I consider these to be subsets of this strategy.
Pump Longs (a subset of InvestorsUnderground Type Trades)
2009: $291.35
- Weighted Average Profit: 1.38%
2008: not used
Pre-Leader Longs (a subset of InvestorsUnderground Type Trades)
2009: $1,023.85
- Weighted Average Profit: 0.75%
2008: not used
Stocks that are up in pre-market trading often make big moves from the open and can make for good buying opportunities. I have just started to try to implement this strategy and I trade it with a position size in between $1000 and $1500.
Fat-Fingered Shorts (a subset of InvestorsUnderground Type Trades)
- 2009: $2576.81
- Weighted Average Profit: 0.86%
- 2008: not used
These trades involve a stock quickly spiking 20% to 300% in under a couple minutes. These probably result from so-called fat-fingered trades when a trader trying to buy a large block of shares puts in a market instead of limit order or puts a limit price too high or makes the order for more shares than intended. A CNBC mention may also lead to such a spike. I short these after checking to make sure there is no news and usually waiting for the spike to fade. The lower trading volume a stock has the less risky it is to short in this circumstance (this increases the odds of the spike occurring because of a fat-fingered trade and not news).
Random Trades
- 2009: $3,579.34
- Weighted Average Profit: 7.12%
- 2008: $18,514.36
- Weighted Average Profit: 1.78%
Just what it says: these are random trades that do not fit in any other category. Profitable trades in 2008 include buying and shorting CEG when it fell around September 2008 on rumors of bankruptcy.
Pseudo Arb
- 2009: $8,816.74
- Weighted Average Profit: 0.33%
- 2008: $7,375.16
- Weighted Average Profit: 0.22%
My pseudo-arbitrage is primarily share-class arbitrage, primarily of BRK-A and BRK-B. This gives me better-than T-bill returns with low risk and without tying up my capital for long (a month at most). My returns on this strategy are greatly helped by the current low interest rates, which make margin debt very cheap at Interactive Brokers.
LESS IMPORTANT TRADING STRATEGIES
Pre-Leader Red Shorts (a subset of InvestorsUnderground Type Trades)
2009: $0
2008: not used
Cheap Longs
- 2009: not used
- 2008: $5,649.97
- Weighted Average Profit: 2.91%
My profits from 2008 in this strategy were primarily the result of buying certain exchange-traded bonds (particularly Comcast’s CCW). During the autumn 2008 market meltdown these traded at insane yields (up to 15% for CCW!) and closely followed the movements of stocks, offering nice profit to those who bought when everyone else was selling.
Long-Term Shorts
- 2009: $2,609.06
- Weighted Average Profit: 4.23%
- 2008: ($2,287.84)
- Weighted Average Profit: (3.18%)
My profits in 2008 do not include profits prior to 10/7/2008. My profits prior to that date were very large despite a $100k+ loss on one particular trade. This was my first trading strategy and garnered me huge profits in 2007 and early 2008; I no longer use it much because it is now much harder to get long-term borrows of shares to short.
TMF Pumps
2009: no longer in use
2008: ($113.40)
Options Expiry Runners
2009: ($223.96)
2008: not used
Q Bounce Plays
2009: ($339.00)
2008: not used
Gap Fillers
2009: ($253.00)
2008: not used
Blogging Profits
These are actually my gross receipts (net of Paypal fees) and include all blogs; the cost of my blog is just under $200/year in hosting and domain names and the cost of Jing; I had a loss in 2008 of several hundred dollars due to legal expenses related to my blogs. The data are current as of 1/14/2009. The data reflect when I was paid, not when the income was accrued.
Google Adsense
2010: $0
2009: $326.02
2008: $34.94
prior to 2008: $17.39
Amazon.com Affiliate Link
I earn a commission of about 6% on any product people buy from Amazon.com after using my link (not just for products to which I linked directly).
2010: $0
2009: $11.92
prior to 2009: $12.26
I earn a 25% commission based on every product or service my readers buy from Tim after clicking on my affiliate link.
2010: $4559.37
2009: $1,428.02
2008: $242.16
Business Ventures with Tim Sykes
This includes royalties on the sale of the Read SEC Filings DVD I coauthored with Sykes and payments I receive from him in compensation for moderating his chatroom.
2010: $0
2009: $0
InvestorsUnderground.com Affiliate link
I earn 50% of a new subscriber’s first period payment and 25% on an ongoing basis. New subscribers who use my link save 10% off of the normal monthly price or 15% off the normal quarterly price.
2010: $507.48
2009: $802.73
2008: $0
Paypal Donation Link (Buy me a cup of coffee)
2009: $209.33



#1 by Tastylunch on August 3rd, 2009 11:45:25 PM
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Your returns are very impressive Reaper and I’m not surprised your “super secret” strat is the past big winner (judging by its performance it does not appear to be a market neutral strategy)…
That being said it’s kind of hard fro me to judge those returns without knowing what you risked. Do you keep track of your “R”? If so have you considered posting them in that fashion (ala Trader Mike and Ugly)?
Thanks as always for the the thoughts/insights
#2 by Reaper on August 4th, 2009 9:06:41 AM
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What is R, Tasty? I will post my average profit margin. If you want me to post my IRR, that would be nearly impossible at this point, because I have moved my money between various brokerage accounts so often.
#3 by Reaper on August 4th, 2009 9:48:30 AM
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Nevermind, I found it: http://tradermike.net/2006/09/r_r-multiples_defined/
I think R is dumb for reporting profits (although it makes sense for tracking trades personally). In trading you cannot say exactly what your risk is. If you use your stop loss, then that ignores the risk of a gap up or down that jumps right by your stop loss. If you use your position size then you are right back to reporting profit margins. So profit margins report the same information and with less discretion. All in all, I think profit margin is a much better metric.
#4 by Reaper on August 4th, 2009 1:26:34 PM
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Okay, I have added profit margins. BTW, Tasty, my super-secret trading strategy is not actually strongly market-linked.
#5 by Tastylunch on August 4th, 2009 11:30:15 PM
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That’s a very fair criticism of “R”, my point was just that some form of context for profits is useful. I just mentioned “R” since I thought you might think profit margin was too revealing. Some guys get nervy about that.
Thanks for putting up the profit margins, I think the additional context really helps clarify a bit of what your results are really like and gives your returns much greater credibility.
I think it should hopefully help you get some referrals sales for TimProducts etc.
Pingback: How to track your stock trades « Reaper Trades
#6 by Tastylunch on September 14th, 2009 4:42:43 PM
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I like the inclusion of your blog profits.
I’m glad it makes you some money since that means you are more likely to keep doing it.
#7 by qbantek on November 1st, 2009 5:40:05 PM
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Great job Reaper … but not very encouraging for me
This is what I think:
I make ~ $75k/year on my day job (computer programmer) and I my ultimate goal would be to become an independent day-trader (no more day job) and maybe also programing but not as an employee (I am a terrible employee). I have been trading for the last 6 months, following Tim’s strategy and whoever can help me to be a better trader.
Now considering the fact that:
1. I consider you to be a far superior trader than I am
2. I would like to match or improve my current day job wages.
Then I have to say that my ultimate goals are fading into a never-happen cloud
Also: from timothysykes.com I can see Tim’s earnings explained at http://timothysykes.com/blog/2009/10/27/how-did-my-account-perform-in-september-now-up-103-in-2009-short-selling-yup-the-only-short-seller-doing-well-table/ (stock market earnings – forget about DVDs and blog earnings). He made ~ $80k in the last 2 years .
Of course I also consider Timothy as a trader to be a lot lot better than me, his covestor’s earnings are crushing not only my account but anybody else’s accounts at covestor.com .. Still he made less than $90k in 2 years?
Is all that telling me that I better stick to programming and forget about my in dependency hot dreams?!!!
#8 by Reaper on November 1st, 2009 6:21:43 PM
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Yes, it is very difficult to make a living from trading. Keep in mind a few things:
1. Tim trades with very little money. His trading earnings will skyrocket as his accounts grow.
2. Tim trades a lot less than he used to trade; he has to worry about TimAlerters piggybacking on his trades. He would be more profitable (although his winning percentage would be lower) if he didn’t have TimAlerts.
3. I trade like Tim and generally suck at less than ideal setups, despite not having an alert service and plenty of cash. Also, my best trading strategy has underperformed this year because I have been aiming for home runs instead of singles. I would likely be up $80k+ using this strategy this year if I had not aimed for home runs.
So while it isn’t impossible to trade for a living, it is hard. One of the keys for me at least is to keep living expenses low … I don’t have to make more than $50k per year, living in Michigan … someone living in SoCal or NYC would have to make at least four times that to have my standard of living.
#9 by vset on December 21st, 2009 4:21:12 AM
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On other countries with $15k you will have same standard of living…too expensive US.
Regards.
#10 by qbantek on November 1st, 2009 7:25:13 PM
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Thanks for your input.
And you are 100% right about expenses and choosing the right place to live; I took that advice as far as planning to leave from US and settle in another country if need be. I was not born in the US so that makes it easier for me.
Last week I stupidly lost $4000 (!), my first big loss after almost 6 months of steady growing. So I am basically re-thinking my strategies and my overall plans.
At least I know what I did wrong and why I did it wrong.. hope not to repeat it again!
#11 by Eric on November 10th, 2009 6:20:12 PM
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For your Tim Type trades, you note your average profit…
What kind of standard deviation or variance do you see on your average profit?
#12 by Reaper on November 10th, 2009 6:24:25 PM
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Luckily for you I did a post on that: http://www.reapertrades.com/2009/10/update-on-trading-tim-sykes-system/